Updated BCS Projections

The biggest Saturday in the ACC is on the horizon. And there are many matchups around the country that will give us more clarity on the fluid BCS projections.

Here is CFB Kings best prediction as to what teams will land where in the BCS Bowl Games:

BCS Championship Game: Auburn vs. Oregon

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh

Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oklahoma

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU

Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Boise State

We're Asking the Wrong Question

Ever since 2004, I have been amongst the BCS-Elitists whose slogans represent something to the effect of “Just Say No to the Non-AQ!!!” Sure, I have respected the success of Utah, Boise State, BYU, Hawaii and TCU over the past 6 years, but I was strongly against their inclusion in the BCS Bowls and in particular the National Championship discussion. So many people that argue with me on the subject continue to ask me some variation of the following question: “What… you don’t think that Boise or TCU could beat Mississippi State, Clemson, South Carolina, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, or Alabama?”

And there within lies my problem with the entire discussion. We’ll come back to this.

Even in this season, the 3 Non-BCS powerhouses have proven their capability. TCU beat a Baylor team that now sits atop the Big 12 South. Boise beat a Virginia Tech team who is currently undefeated in the ACC. And Utah beat a Pittsburgh team which has started 3-0 in Big East league play. Right now you’re probably thinking… “exactly, so they should have the chance to play for the title.” Keep dreaming (and reading).

There is NO DOUBT in my mind this year that Boise State, Utah, and TCU could beat any team in the country on a neutral field. Heck, I even think that they could go into some of the most hostile road environments, including SEC venues, and come away with victories. But let’s change that “or” to “and” and re-ask the aforementioned question.

“Do you think that Boise or TCU could beat Mississippi State, Clemson, South Carolina, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama?”

The answer to that question… is an emphatic NO.

But, that is what Auburn has been asked to do this year… and so far (with a 9-0 record) they have done it.

Ohio State has been asked to beat Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa, Penn State, Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue.

Oklahoma has been asked to beat Florida State, Cincinnati, Air Force, Texas, Missouri, Iowa State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State.

Even though Oklahoma and Ohio State both slipped up once, the fact that they are attempting to navigate such a difficult schedule is the point. Week-in and week-out, the BCS conference members have to play a schedule that requires their best effort. The Non-BCS schools do not have nearly the challenge that the BCS schools do. BCS teams are asked to beat more than 1 or 2 tough opponents every year, unlike the non-BCS teams.

Ponder this. In the heart of the season (October):
Boise State played New Mexico State, Toledo, San Jose State, and Louisiana Tech.
TCU played Colorado State, Wyoming, BYU, Air Force, and UNLV.

Now, during that same stretch:
Alabama played Arkansas, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Ole Miss.

LSU played West Virginia, Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn.

Oregon played Stanford, UCLA, Washington State, and USC.

The bottom line is that these non-BCS schedules are not on par with their BCS brethren, so why should the non-BCS teams play for the same reward? Even the title of the game itself should be enough to drive home that point. It’s not called the “College Football Championship” or the “FBS National Title”. It’s called the “BCS Championship Game”. It is a reward for the top teams that come out of the BCS conferences. It’s not a reward for teams that play schedules with a strength ranking below 90th.

I have softened my stance on allowing the Non-BCS teams to participate in some of the BCS games. It is entertaining to see how a Boise or TCU matches up with some of the BCS powers every now and again. But the BCS Championship should remain reserved for schools that reside in BCS conferences. That is a question that is easy to answer.

Week 10 BCS Bowl Projections

There is a ton of football left to be played. After this week (Alabama vs. LSU and TCU vs Utah) there will be a lot more clarity as to how the BCS picture will shape up. For now, here is CFB Kings best prediction as to what teams will land where in the BCS Bowl Games:


BCS Championship Game: Oregon vs. Auburn

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Pittsburgh

Fiesta Bowl: Utah vs. Oklahoma

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Boise State

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Nebraska

Updated BCS Bowl Projections

Here is CFB Kings best projection as to what teams will land where in the BCS Bowl Games:


BCS Championship Game: Auburn vs. Boise State

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl: Utah vs. Oklahoma

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State

Don't Forget About Us

Who fits this profile? A non-BCS school that is undefeated, beat a pre-season BCS-conference favorite, has an average margin of victory of 30.1 pts per game, has a QB who’s pass efficiency rating is 158.7, has 2 RBs with over 300 yards, 2 WRs with 4 TDs each, and ranked in the Top 10 in the first BCS Standings of the season. If you answered Boise State or TCU, you’re dead wrong.

The only team that fits that profile is the Utah Utes. So why is it that only Boise and TCU are getting the talk about BCS crashers? Utah beat #15 ranked (at the time) Pittsburgh to start the season, and has since had blowout wins over Iowa State, UNLV, and Wyoming among others. Sure, Pittsburgh has sputtered a bit, but so has Virginia Tech (who Boise beat in week 1) and so has Oregon State (who TCU beat in Week 1). Virginia Tech lost to FCS James Madison and Oregon State now has 3 losses on the season. Since their week 1 overtime win, no team has been within 24 points of the Utes after the final buzzer. They are so deep in the roster, that when their starting QB was injured for 2 games, the backup (Terrance Cain) came in and threw for 496 yards, 5 TDs, and 0 ints.

Prior to the start of the season, Boise State had gotten all of the love. The Broncos have seemed to become the “People’s Champ” as almost everyone wants to see them get an opportunity to play for a championship… but I contend that the wrong team is being promoted.

A quick history lesson is in order. Most people continue to look at Boise’s miracle win over Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl as the “arrival” of the Non-Automatic Qualifying schools. But, much like Utah is being forgotten about by voters, experts, and fans this season, America seems to forget that it was actually the Utes who were the original BCS Busters. In 2004, the Urban Meyer led Utes finished 13-0 and won the Fiesta Bowl over Big East Champion Pittsburgh. And then 4 years later, that same Utah team finished unbeaten again and beat a 12-1 Alabama Crimson Tide team by 14 in the Sugar Bowl.

Of course by this point in the article, some of you are thinking “but Boise has the best chance to make it”. To borrow a line from my favorite sports analyst (Lee Corso), not so fast my friend. For the remainder of the season, Boise doesn’t play a single ranked team. The one team that was supposed to give them trouble and possibly be ranked (Nevada) lost last weekend to Hawaii. On the other hand, Utah still plays #5 ranked TCU (at home, nonetheless) and they also face Air Force (who was ranked #23 last week) and Notre Dame, who should be 6-3 at the time of the contest. If Utah finds a way to win all 3 of those games and then finish with wins over solid San Diego State and BYU teams, the Utes will have a great chance at passing Boise in the standings.

Boise State and TCU are great programs, and they deserve our respect, but if any team deserves to be the first Non-automatic qualifier to play for the BCS Championship, it should be the team that started it all back in 2004 (Utah), not the teams that have ridden the coattails of Utah’s success (Boise and TCU).

So, while everyone out there continues to tout the successes of TCU and Boise State, I implore you… don’t forget about the Utes.

The Door Is Open

There is a door open. This door has been closed for quite a bit of time. Only 2 members had the ability to enter the exclusive room behind this closed door. A 3rd party attempted to walk through that door and gain membership, yet as soon as they entered, they were immediately given “the boot”. But as it stands, this year might be the year that a 3rd member is actually accepted.

In a division that has been completely dominated by the Sooners and Longhorns, there are 2 teams that face each other Thursday night in primetime with a chance to end that domination. The winner of that game has a legitimate shot at finally gaining membership to the exclusive club of Big 12 South Champions. The last time a team not named Texas or Oklahoma won the Big 12 South Bill Clinton was President, Y2K wasn’t even a concern yet, and Titanic just won the Academy Award for Best Picture.

In 2008, Texas Tech made a valiant attempt at infiltrating the stronghold of the aforementioned dominant programs, however, they were embarrassed by Oklahoma 65-17 in late November which ended all hope they had at representing the Big 12 South.

Well, it’s now 2010. And if there’s ever been a year to make it happen, this is it. Garrett Gilbert is no Vince Young or Colt McCoy. Landry Jones is no Sam Bradford or Jason White. Mike Leach has departed Lubbock. There’s no Roy Williams, no Adrian Peterson, no Jermaine Gresham, no Brian Orakpo, no Ricky Williams. And as UCLA showed the world on Saturday by spanking Texas 34-12 in Austin, there are no longer any strongholds in the division.

The 2 teams with the best shot at crashing the party face off tonight in a must win for both. Texas A&M enters tonight’s game riding a 3-0 record and touting a Heisman Trophy caliber QB in Jerrod Johnson. The running game has been the biggest area of improvement for the Aggies as they have 2 backs capable of going over 1,000 yards this year in Christine Michael (331 yards so far) and Cyrus Gray (188 yards so far). Defensively, they have added a new Defensive Coordinator to the staff in Tim DeRuyter. He has switched the base defense to a 3-4 which allows their All-American LB, Von Miller, to fully utilize his talents rushing off the edge.

Oklahoma State (3-0) was thought to be rebuilding this year after the departure of record holders Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant. But somebody forgot to tell that to the 2010 offense. New starting QB Bradon Weeden has already thrown for 11 TDs while completing 75% of his passes and WR Justin Blackmon has already caught 8 TDs. And that familiar face in the backfield is none other than Kendall Hunter. The 2008 All-Big 12 RB who had an injury riddled 2009 season is back at full strength. His 473 yards and 6 TDs highlights the ground game of the Cowboys.

This game might have flown under the radar of some people minds, but the fact is that the winner of this game will be in a prime position to challenge Oklahoma and Texas for the Big 12 South Division title. Thursday night games don’t get much bigger than this.

Here We Go...

As I was watching football on Saturday night, I saw one of those Bud Light Commercials. You know, the ones that start with a serious dilemma like a plane crash. Nobody knows how their going to overcome the issue at hand when suddenly a character in the commercial discovers a couple cases of Bud Light and somebody then inevitably says the beer company’s catch phrase: “Here we go”.

It got me to thinking. As I do with almost everything in life, I compared it to football. I related the first part of those commercials (the dilemma portion) to the first month of this season. The hectic, wild ride of non-conference play that provided us with some great matchups. It provided us with “Monster Saturday”. It provided us with UCLA over Texas and Miami over Pitt and Michigan over Notre Dame. The first 4 weeks has indeed been fun.

But…… Here we go.

Just as the commercial turns to a chaotic party of drunkenness, so does the season now turn to the chaotic beauty that is Conference Play. Gone are the dream matchups such as Ohio State vs. Miami and Florida State vs. Oklahoma. Now we start playing the part of the season that matters. No longer will teams be fighting the stranger at the bar. Instead teams will be fighting their next door neighbor, their brother-in-law, their parents.

Conference play puts an end to the first quarter of the season and it takes us into the month of October which is where inevitably the war of attrition truly begins. Slowly, but surely teams fall along the waste side. Upsets, injuries, coaches being fired. This is when the season and conference championship races really takes shape.

Sure there is an excitement about playing a team that you only play once every 20 years (e.g. USC vs. Minnesota). But there is something even more special about turning on the TV and seeing that matchup that has stayed consistent throughout the years. These are backyard brawls. Texas and Oklahoma start the brawling out in the Cotton Bowl on Saturday. Florida and Alabama will continue the bitter emotion well into the night. And so, it begins.

The glitz and glamour of the first quarter of the season is over.

Full fledged Conference Play is upon us.

Week 3 Upset Alert

Lots of solid games this weekend. Most of the favorites should win, but there are a few teams that need to listen to the sirens, because an Upset Alert is headed their way:

#7 Oklahoma - The Sooners were impressive against Florida State last Saturday in a 30 point win. Besides the obvious possibility of a letdown after such a hyped game, there is another reason for concern. The Sooners haven’t fared well against the MWC recently. We all recall their Week 1 loss to BYU last season and back in 2005, the Sooners lost their opener to TCU. Could a strong Air Force team that will control the time of possession upset Stoops Troops?

#4 TCU - Speaking of those Horned Frogs, they have truly gone from the hunter to the hunted. In an All-Texas affair, TCU will face the upstart Baylor Bears in Forth Worth, TX. While most people will scoff at this notion, they should recognize that this is the type of game where 1 superstar player can make all the difference. That possible superstar is Baylor’s Junior QB Robert Griffin III. If he gets it going early, the Bears have a chance.

#9 Iowa - The Hawkeyes have struggled recently against West Coast opponents on the road. They travel to Arizona to face the Wildcats on Saturday night. Not only will the Hawkeyes have to make a long road trip, but they will have to play one of the hottest offenses in America led by Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Foles.

#20 Michigan - After what we’ve seen in the first 2 weeks, people must think we’re crazy for including Michigan as a possible upset alert team when they are hosting the UMass Minutemen of the FCS division. But we all remember that 2007 home opener in which the Wolverines stumbled at the hands of FCS Appalachian State. Also, in an interesting side-note, UMass’s fellow Colonial Athletic Conference member, James Madison, rolled into Blacksburg last Saturday and upset #13 Virginia Tech. Hmmmmm….

We’re not saying that these teams will lose… we are just saying they better be wary.

Q & A

Our next question comes from Big Hastie in Florida.

Q: I don't understand how you have Tyrod Taylor and Noel Devine higher than Ryan Williams in the Heisman rankings. Just would like to know your reasoning behind that.

A: Excellent Question. The reasoning that we have behind leaving Ryan Williams out of our Top 20 is the same reason that we don’t have Mark Ingram repeating as the Heisman Trophy winner: Lack of carries. There is no doubt that Sophomore Ryan Williams is one of the most talented running backs in America. He proved it last year with his 1,655 yards and 21 TDs. If he were to repeat that performance then he’d certainly be in contention. But fellow sophomore Darren Evans is returning to the backfield for the Hokies after running for a then freshman record 1,265 yards in 2008. After missing all of 2009 with an ACL injury, reports are that Evans is back at full strength and will share carries with Williams. Also, a 3rd back, David Wilson, who rushed for 334 yards as a backup in 2009 will garner carries throughout the season. All in all, I think that Virginia Tech will have one of the Top 3 backfields in the country and Ryan Williams will certainly be a star, but because of the wide ranging talent, I don’t think he will get enough carries to put up the numbers to win the award.

The reason we have RBs like Demarco Murray and Noel Devine higher than Williams is because they will be the lone feature backs on Conference Championship contending teams. They should both average 25+ carries per game giving them a better chance to put up huge numbers.

As always, send your questions to TheCFBGuru@gmail.com and we will be sure to answer.

#6 Oklahoma Sooners

A Sun Bowl appearance was not what the Oklahoma Sooners had in mind when the 2009 season started. Upon hearing that Sam Bradford would return for his Junior Season, everybody pegged Oklahoma for a Top 5 poll position and thoughts of BCS Championships flooded the Sooner campus. Those hopes were dashed in the 2nd quarter of the 1st game of the season when Bradford was injured. After limping (literally) to the finish line in ’09, Bob Stoops looks to bring glory back to the program.

“Stoops Troops” (as the Sooners are affectionately known) enter 2010 with a lot of optimism. The Bradford injury was the worst thing that could have happened to the team in 2009… but interestingly enough its also Bradford’s injury that allowed backup QB Landry Jones to start 10 games and gain an unrivaled level of confidence and experience. He finished the year with 3,198 yards and 26 TDs including 418 yards and 3 TDs in the Sun Bowl victory over Stanford. He enters this season as the veteran, so to speak, starter.

Joining him on offense will be one of the most underrated and talented RBs in America, Demarco Murray. Murray has had to share time the past 3 years with Chris Brown, but with Brown’s departure to the NFL, Murray has the backfield all to himself. Expect his carries per game to increase to well above 20, after only averaging 13 the last 2 seasons. Always dangerous in both the running and passing game, Murray will have plenty of opportunities to place himself in the All-Big 12 Conference conversation.

Out wide, the Sooners bring back the best slot WR in the nation, Ryan Broyles. Broyles tallied 1,160 yards and 89 receptions, including 15 TDs. He had 6 games over 100 yards. Dejuan Miller, Cameron Kenney, and Brandon Caleb join Broyles in what should make up the best WR unit in the conference. Four of the Sooners 2009 starting offensive linemen also return which should bolster both the running game while consistently giving Jones ample time in the pocket.

Defensively is where the Sooners were far from their usual selves in 2009. This unit will need to make great strides if the team is expected to contend for a Big 12 title, as expected. All-Conference selection Jeremy Beal returns up front to anchor the D-line. The LB crew brings back 3 solid players who all contributed last year: Austin Box, Travis Lewis, and Ronnell Lewis.

The early departure of CB Dominique Franks puts a dent in the defensive backfield as both CBs will be first-time starters. But the return of All-Conference Free Safety Quinton Carter along with Junior Sam Proctor should ease the transition.

Oklahoma should have an advantage in any war of field position due to the return of Tress Way, the 2009 All-Big 12 Punter.

The Sooner schedule is front loaded with one of the toughest 4-game stretches in the country. Facing Florida State, Air Force, Cincinnati, and Texas in Weeks 2 through 5 will really test this squad early. If they make it through that stretch with a strong pulse, then the rest of the Big 12 schedule shapes up nicely.


Key Returning Players:
QB Landry Jones
RB Demarco Murray
WR Ryan Broyles
OT Cory Brandon
DE Jeremy Beal
LB Travis Lewis
FS Quinton Carter
P Tress Way

Key Games:
Sept 11 - Florida State
Sept 25 - @ Cincinnati
Oct 2 - Texas (in Dallas)
Nov 6 - @ Texas A&M
Nov 13 - Texas Tech
Nov 27 - @ Oklahoma State