Week 7 Upset Alert

There is an impressive slate of games on this week’s menu, and there is only 1 that makes my Alert sirens blare:

#5 Nebraska - The Cornhuskers are riding high after starting the season 5-0 and ranked in the Top 5 of most national polls. Most people consider them to have the best defense in the nation. And Redshirt Freshman QB Taylor Martinez has created quite a buzz with his impressive running ability. But if you take a close look at their schedule, you’ll notice that they have played 5 teams that aren’t anywhere near the caliber of opponent they will face on Saturday. The Huskers have beaten Western Kentucky, Idaho, Washington, South Dakota State, and Kansas State. But there have been glaring issues. Against Idaho the defense picked off the Vandals 5 times, but yet the offense (with great field position all day) could only muster 38 points against a much inferior opponent. Then a couple of weeks later, after 3 quarters of play the Huskers only led the Jackrabbits of SDSU by a score of 14-3. And ended up only winning 17-3.

So, while most of America has been praising, oo’ing, and ah’ing at the the fact that “The Cornhuskers are back”, I am still not convinced.

The Texas Longhorns come to town having lost 2 consecutive games. They dropped out of the national rankings for the first time in 10 years. Vegas has them as a double digit underdog for the first time in 7 years. Most of the country, outside of Austin, TX thinks that Nebraska will get revenge for their 2-point loss in last years Big 12 Championship game. But with 2 weeks to prepare (Texas had a bye last week) the Longhorns should be very prepared for Taylor Martinez and his option attack. Nebraska has not seen a team with the amount of speed that Texas possesses. The Longhorns ability to stop the run (particularly on 1st down) and Nebraska’s lack of a passing game (average less that 145 passing yards per game) will bring the “Big Red Machine” to a stop.
Texas wins on the road as Garrett Gilbert gets his first big win as the Longhorns signal caller.

The Door Is Open

There is a door open. This door has been closed for quite a bit of time. Only 2 members had the ability to enter the exclusive room behind this closed door. A 3rd party attempted to walk through that door and gain membership, yet as soon as they entered, they were immediately given “the boot”. But as it stands, this year might be the year that a 3rd member is actually accepted.

In a division that has been completely dominated by the Sooners and Longhorns, there are 2 teams that face each other Thursday night in primetime with a chance to end that domination. The winner of that game has a legitimate shot at finally gaining membership to the exclusive club of Big 12 South Champions. The last time a team not named Texas or Oklahoma won the Big 12 South Bill Clinton was President, Y2K wasn’t even a concern yet, and Titanic just won the Academy Award for Best Picture.

In 2008, Texas Tech made a valiant attempt at infiltrating the stronghold of the aforementioned dominant programs, however, they were embarrassed by Oklahoma 65-17 in late November which ended all hope they had at representing the Big 12 South.

Well, it’s now 2010. And if there’s ever been a year to make it happen, this is it. Garrett Gilbert is no Vince Young or Colt McCoy. Landry Jones is no Sam Bradford or Jason White. Mike Leach has departed Lubbock. There’s no Roy Williams, no Adrian Peterson, no Jermaine Gresham, no Brian Orakpo, no Ricky Williams. And as UCLA showed the world on Saturday by spanking Texas 34-12 in Austin, there are no longer any strongholds in the division.

The 2 teams with the best shot at crashing the party face off tonight in a must win for both. Texas A&M enters tonight’s game riding a 3-0 record and touting a Heisman Trophy caliber QB in Jerrod Johnson. The running game has been the biggest area of improvement for the Aggies as they have 2 backs capable of going over 1,000 yards this year in Christine Michael (331 yards so far) and Cyrus Gray (188 yards so far). Defensively, they have added a new Defensive Coordinator to the staff in Tim DeRuyter. He has switched the base defense to a 3-4 which allows their All-American LB, Von Miller, to fully utilize his talents rushing off the edge.

Oklahoma State (3-0) was thought to be rebuilding this year after the departure of record holders Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant. But somebody forgot to tell that to the 2010 offense. New starting QB Bradon Weeden has already thrown for 11 TDs while completing 75% of his passes and WR Justin Blackmon has already caught 8 TDs. And that familiar face in the backfield is none other than Kendall Hunter. The 2008 All-Big 12 RB who had an injury riddled 2009 season is back at full strength. His 473 yards and 6 TDs highlights the ground game of the Cowboys.

This game might have flown under the radar of some people minds, but the fact is that the winner of this game will be in a prime position to challenge Oklahoma and Texas for the Big 12 South Division title. Thursday night games don’t get much bigger than this.

Week 3 Upset Alert

Lots of solid games this weekend. Most of the favorites should win, but there are a few teams that need to listen to the sirens, because an Upset Alert is headed their way:

#7 Oklahoma - The Sooners were impressive against Florida State last Saturday in a 30 point win. Besides the obvious possibility of a letdown after such a hyped game, there is another reason for concern. The Sooners haven’t fared well against the MWC recently. We all recall their Week 1 loss to BYU last season and back in 2005, the Sooners lost their opener to TCU. Could a strong Air Force team that will control the time of possession upset Stoops Troops?

#4 TCU - Speaking of those Horned Frogs, they have truly gone from the hunter to the hunted. In an All-Texas affair, TCU will face the upstart Baylor Bears in Forth Worth, TX. While most people will scoff at this notion, they should recognize that this is the type of game where 1 superstar player can make all the difference. That possible superstar is Baylor’s Junior QB Robert Griffin III. If he gets it going early, the Bears have a chance.

#9 Iowa - The Hawkeyes have struggled recently against West Coast opponents on the road. They travel to Arizona to face the Wildcats on Saturday night. Not only will the Hawkeyes have to make a long road trip, but they will have to play one of the hottest offenses in America led by Heisman Trophy candidate Nick Foles.

#20 Michigan - After what we’ve seen in the first 2 weeks, people must think we’re crazy for including Michigan as a possible upset alert team when they are hosting the UMass Minutemen of the FCS division. But we all remember that 2007 home opener in which the Wolverines stumbled at the hands of FCS Appalachian State. Also, in an interesting side-note, UMass’s fellow Colonial Athletic Conference member, James Madison, rolled into Blacksburg last Saturday and upset #13 Virginia Tech. Hmmmmm….

We’re not saying that these teams will lose… we are just saying they better be wary.

Conference Predictions

Curious how the Conference races will pan out? Here is how we here at CFB Kings are predicting the order of finish:

ACC

Coastal
Miami
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Duke
Virginia

Atlantic
Florida State
Clemson
Boston College
N.C. State
Maryland
Wake Forest

ACC Championship Game: Miami defeats Florida State

SEC

East
Florida
South Carolina
Georgia
Tennessee
Kentucky
Vanderbilt

West
LSU
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Ole Miss
Mississippi State

SEC Championship Game: Florida defeats LSU

Big Ten

Ohio State
Wisconsin
Iowa
Michigan
Penn State
Michigan State
Northwestern
Illinois
Purdue
Indiana
Minnesota

Big 12

North
Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
Colorado

South
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
Baylor

Big 12 Championship Game: Oklahoma defeats Nebraska

Pac-10

USC
Oregon
Oregon State
Arizona
Washington
UCLA
Stanford
California
Arizona St
Washington St

Big East

West Virginia
Pittsburgh
UConn
Rutgers
Cincinnati
USF
Louisville
Syracuse

Q & A #1

I’m happy to post our first reader question.
It comes from Steve P. of Dallas, TX.

Q: Hey Guru, I noticed Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter was missing from your pre-season All America team. While he had an injury riddled season in 2009, how do you see him doing this year? Isn’t he still one of the best backs in the country?

A: First off, we’d like to thank Steve for becoming our first reader to submit a question. Here’s my take on Kendall Hunter. He undoubtedly proved his worth in 2008, rushing for 1,555 yards and 16 TDs. His versatility was also used effectively out of the backfield to the tune of 198 yards receiving. But there within lies the downside to the Hunter conversation. 3-year starter Zac Robinson is gone at QB. With an inexperienced guy calling the signals for the Cowboys (likely Brandon Weeden), I expect the offense to sputter, particularly when Big 12 conference play starts for them in early October. On sheer talent, Hunter is one of the Top 10 RBs in America. But, due to the bleak prospectus of the OSU offense, I don’t expect his production to come close to the All-American caliber numbers he put up in 2008.

#4 Texas Longhorns

In one of the most disappointing games in Longhorn history, Texas fans had to watch their back-up QB try to win the National Championship game for them after Heisman finalist Colt McCoy was injured on the first drive of the game. While the loss was devastating for the program, there were 2 people that left Pasadena last January with a slight smirk on their faces: Mack Brown and Garrett Gilbert.

Spring and Fall practice, along with summer workouts and late night film sessions are all great ways for a first-year starter to prepare. But is there any better preparation than a 3 hour scrimmage against one of the best defenses of the decade (Alabama 2009)? That’s an advantage that Garrett Gilbert, the new Longhorns starting QB, was blessed with after the McCoy injury. And while Texas lost the game, the experience and confidence that Gilbert gained are sure to pay dividends immediately in the 2010 season. A 5-star recruit in the 2009 class, Gilbert has a chance to splash onto the scene and be one of the best QBs in the Big 12 conference right away.

The running game has been a point of emphasis for the Longhorns in preparation for the 2010 season. Last year, they ranked a disappointing 61st nationally in rushing. Their leading rusher, Tre’ Newton, only had 513 yards on the season. Colt McCoy finished as their #2 leading rusher… never a good sign for an offense. Three players who have started (Newton, Vondrell McGee, and Fozzy Whitaker) are returning in the Longhorn backfield and that bodes well for the statistics. Mack Brown has also said in many offseason interviews that he will place Gilbert under center (vice the spread shotgun attack that McCoy made famous), which will allow for more “downhill running” out of the I-formation.

At WR, James Kirkendoll burst onto the scene last year with a breakout performance. His 48 receptions and 6 TDs leads all returning WRs. Joining him will be the lanky Junior Malcolm Williams and former QB-turned-WR John Chiles. The offensive line may be a point of contention for Texas, as only 2 starters return to a unit that (as stated earlier) underachieved in opening holes for its RBs.

Defensively, the Longhorns have made a habit of producing top notch talent year in and year out. 2010 should be no exception. Under the leadership of the always fiery “Coach-in-Waiting” and Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp, Texas has elevated its already dominant play on that side of the ball. DE Sam Acho should continue in the line of great lineman to play at Texas. His size/speed/strength combination is similar to that of his predecessors Brian Orakpo and Sergio Kindle. Keenan Robinson anchors the middle at LB, and the secondary should be amongst the best in the country with S Blake Gideon, CB Curtis Brown, CB Chykie Brown, and Nickel Back Aaron Williams (a possible 1st round draft pick) leading the way.

The Texas schedule is once again conducive to a strong run at the always lofty BCS goals. They open the season with Rice and Wyoming before a 4 game stretch that includes games against Texas Tech, UCLA, Oklahoma, and Nebraska, with the later 2 being amongst the most anticipated 2010 matchups in the nation. They finish the season against 6 teams that should not be ranked, although in-state foes Baylor and Texas A&M should present a formidable challenge.

The Big 12 should be more competitive than its ever been, highlighted by the Big 3 (Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma), but I see no reason why Texas wont earn a 3rd straight BCS berth. The back to back games against Oklahoma and Nebraska will be the difference between the Holiday Bowl and a BCS game.

Key Returning Players:
QB Garrett Gilbert
RB Tre’ Newton
WR James Kirkendoll
WR Malcolm Williams
OT Kyle Hix
DE Sam Acho
CB Aaron Williams
CB Chykie Brown
S Blake Gideon

Key Games:
Sept 18 - @ Texas Tech
Sept 25 - UCLA
Oct 2 - Oklahoma (in Dallas)
Oct 16 - @ Nebraska
Nov 25 - Texas A&M

#6 Oklahoma Sooners

A Sun Bowl appearance was not what the Oklahoma Sooners had in mind when the 2009 season started. Upon hearing that Sam Bradford would return for his Junior Season, everybody pegged Oklahoma for a Top 5 poll position and thoughts of BCS Championships flooded the Sooner campus. Those hopes were dashed in the 2nd quarter of the 1st game of the season when Bradford was injured. After limping (literally) to the finish line in ’09, Bob Stoops looks to bring glory back to the program.

“Stoops Troops” (as the Sooners are affectionately known) enter 2010 with a lot of optimism. The Bradford injury was the worst thing that could have happened to the team in 2009… but interestingly enough its also Bradford’s injury that allowed backup QB Landry Jones to start 10 games and gain an unrivaled level of confidence and experience. He finished the year with 3,198 yards and 26 TDs including 418 yards and 3 TDs in the Sun Bowl victory over Stanford. He enters this season as the veteran, so to speak, starter.

Joining him on offense will be one of the most underrated and talented RBs in America, Demarco Murray. Murray has had to share time the past 3 years with Chris Brown, but with Brown’s departure to the NFL, Murray has the backfield all to himself. Expect his carries per game to increase to well above 20, after only averaging 13 the last 2 seasons. Always dangerous in both the running and passing game, Murray will have plenty of opportunities to place himself in the All-Big 12 Conference conversation.

Out wide, the Sooners bring back the best slot WR in the nation, Ryan Broyles. Broyles tallied 1,160 yards and 89 receptions, including 15 TDs. He had 6 games over 100 yards. Dejuan Miller, Cameron Kenney, and Brandon Caleb join Broyles in what should make up the best WR unit in the conference. Four of the Sooners 2009 starting offensive linemen also return which should bolster both the running game while consistently giving Jones ample time in the pocket.

Defensively is where the Sooners were far from their usual selves in 2009. This unit will need to make great strides if the team is expected to contend for a Big 12 title, as expected. All-Conference selection Jeremy Beal returns up front to anchor the D-line. The LB crew brings back 3 solid players who all contributed last year: Austin Box, Travis Lewis, and Ronnell Lewis.

The early departure of CB Dominique Franks puts a dent in the defensive backfield as both CBs will be first-time starters. But the return of All-Conference Free Safety Quinton Carter along with Junior Sam Proctor should ease the transition.

Oklahoma should have an advantage in any war of field position due to the return of Tress Way, the 2009 All-Big 12 Punter.

The Sooner schedule is front loaded with one of the toughest 4-game stretches in the country. Facing Florida State, Air Force, Cincinnati, and Texas in Weeks 2 through 5 will really test this squad early. If they make it through that stretch with a strong pulse, then the rest of the Big 12 schedule shapes up nicely.


Key Returning Players:
QB Landry Jones
RB Demarco Murray
WR Ryan Broyles
OT Cory Brandon
DE Jeremy Beal
LB Travis Lewis
FS Quinton Carter
P Tress Way

Key Games:
Sept 11 - Florida State
Sept 25 - @ Cincinnati
Oct 2 - Texas (in Dallas)
Nov 6 - @ Texas A&M
Nov 13 - Texas Tech
Nov 27 - @ Oklahoma State