Earlier in the summer, there was excessive talk of the realigning of conferences in College Football. Many analysts and websites were predicting a massive migration of teams to different conferences. Some even had six Big 12 teams, including Texas and Oklahoma, heading to the Pac-10.
As I predicted here on this site, the changes would be minimal. The only major defections ended up being:
-Nebraska to the Big 10
-Colorado and Utah to the Pac-10
-Boise State to the MWC
Now that the minor dust has settled, let’s assess what this means for those conferences that made a change.
The changes will take effect starting with the 2011 football season. The Pac-10 and Big Ten (now each having 12 teams) have aligned themselves to finally have much desired Conference Championship games. In order to do that, both conferences will have to break their schools into two 6-team divisions (like the ACC and SEC have done) and then a Conference Championship venue must be picked.
Here, I take a crack at predicting those things.
Let’s start with the Big Ten. Here is how I see the conference divisions shaping up:
East
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue
West
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois
The Midwest is filled with possible venues to host a Big Ten Championship game. Here is a Top 5 list as to where I see the Big Ten staging this contest:
1. Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis) - This is the premier facility in the Midwest. Newly opened in 2008 it provides the perfect indoor venue for a December football game. Capacity = 63,000
2. Ford Field (Detroit) - Another high-quality indoor facility. Opened in 2002, this field has already hosted a Super Bowl, so it knows how to handle a high-profile event. Capacity = 65,000
3. MetroDome (Minneapolis) - Although further west than the others on this list, the Metrodome provides protection from the harsh winter weather and also was newly refurbished this year with Sportexe (a new and improved field turf). Capacity = 64,111
4. Soldier Field (Chicago) - Probably the best city (Chicago) of the bunch, Soldier Field was newly reopened after massive overhauls in 2003. The weather might be an issue, but Big Ten players can handle the cold. Capacity = 61,500
5. Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati) - Opened in 2000, Cincy provides a nice central location with new facilities. Capacity = 65,500
On to the Pac-10. Here’s how I see the divisions forming:
South
USC
UCLA
Utah
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
North
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
California
Washington
Washington State
Like the Big Ten, the Pac-10 will have no trouble finding stadiums and cities that want to host the Conference Championship game. Here is a Top 5 list as to where I see the Pac-10 having the game:
1. University of Phoenix Stadium (Glendale, AZ) - A State of the art facility that was opened in 2006. It hosts the annual Fiesta Bowl, Arizona Cardinals, and has hosted a Super Bowl. Its retractable roof provides protection from the weather. Capacity = 63,000
2. Qualcomm Stadium (San Diego) - Although it’s not new, the stadium is still up to the task of hosting a Championship game. The mild San Diego weather is also an enticing factor. Capacity = 71,294
3. Rose Bowl (Pasadena) - Not much needs to be said about this classic venue. It would provide a perfect setting for the Pac-10 title game, with the winner getting to return for the Rose Bowl in January. Capacity = 90,000
4. Oakland-Alameda County Stadium (Oakland) - A solid stadium which had its last renovations in 1996. The centrality of location makes this venue a good choice. Capacity = 63,026
5. Qwest Field (Seattle) - A beautiful new stadium nestled in the Northwest, Qwest Field provides a beautiful setting for a West Coast Championship game. However, the poor Seattle weather in December may knock this venue out of the running. Capacity = 72,000
It will be interesting to see how it all turns out. Stay tuned.
Showing posts with label conference expansion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label conference expansion. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Conference Expansion?
Will they or wont they? So much talk in this offseason has centered on the Big Question of Conference Expansion. The talk of “Super Conferences” and “Playoffs” and “Money” and “TV Deals” has been floating around the world of College Football for the past 4 months. Is this a good idea? Will it create more money? Will it shift the power of recruiting?
There are lots of questions… but let’s just focus on the X’s and O’s of this subject, if you will.
The last major conference expansion/realignment occurred in 2004-05 when Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College seceded from the Big East to joint the ACC. Prior to that, you’d have to look all the way back to the early 90’s when the SEC grabbed Arkansas and South Carolina to boost its conference membership from 10 to 12. So, why expand?
Back in 1991, under the direction and vision of Roy Kramer, the SEC decided that it would put its stock in a grand idea known as a Conference Championship Game. Up until that point, conference titles were determined strictly by records during the regular season. The idea was initially scoffed upon, considered to be too ambitious and uninteresting. Well, 18 years later, the 2009 SEC Championship game earned $14.3 million dollars in profit in a 3-day span in Atlanta, GA. The Big 12, ACC, Mid-American Conference and Conference USA have followed suit and while their revenue doesn’t match that of the SEC, “Conference Championship Weekend” (early December) has become one of the biggest money making weekends during the college football season.
So it’s no wonder that other conferences (e.g. Pac-10, Big Ten, MWC) want to add teams in order to set up a conference title matchup in December. The Big Ten, in particular is hungry to make this a reality for 1 main reason. The Big Ten regular season football schedule typically ends the week before Thanksgiving. That essentially renders the conference an afterthought as the other major conferences host their Championship games in early December.
A major point of contention that I have with the idea of a “superconference” that would house 14 or maybe even 16 football teams is simple. The University presidents and athletic directors have made it quite clear that the football season is not going to go above 12 regular season games. And with that, you only have 8 conference games. If, for example, the Big Ten grew to 16 teams, that would mean that teams would only play half the conference in any given year. Can you imagine the possibility that the Big Ten Champion might be undefeated yet they lucked out and didn’t have to play Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State or Wisconsin in their season? How could any college football fan want a situation like that to become a possibility? 12 teams is without a doubt the highest number of teams that should even be considered.
The fantasy talk of “Super-conferences” is fun and spirited, but I am going to err on the side of practicality in this debate. So many journalists and so-called analysts are predicting this major shift and realignment, but amidst the fantasy-laden nature of these ridiculous predictions, lays the truth. And the truth is, as I alluded to earlier, the last time more than 3 teams shifted to an already established major conference was 1953. Translation - it’s simply not going to happen. There will be some minor tweaking, but nothing that will be near the monumental avalanche of change that some are predicting.
Here are the changes that I see occurring. These changes will both add to the spice of College Football by allowing the Pac-10 and Big Ten to become stronger and have a Conference Championship Game, while still keeping in tact the basic structure that is in place today. And oh by the way… Notre Dame isn’t changing anything in my prediction.
1. Missouri will move to the Big Ten.
2. The Big Ten will create 2 divisions and have a conference championship game (see below for breakdown).
3. The Big 12 will compensate by adding TCU.
4. The Big 12 will then realign the conference divisions by adding Oklahoma to the Big 12 North which will create more competition in the north, while also setting up the potential for an Oklahoma vs. Texas Big 12 Championship game every season.
5. Boise State and BYU will join the Pac-10.
a. There is 1 caveat to this one happening. If somehow the Pac-10 doesn’t offer Boise an invitation and/or the MWC can convince Boise that by joining the MWC it will become a BCS conference. If that happens, then I predict the Pac-10 might try to add Fresno St and/or Hawaii.
6. The Pac-10 will create 2 divisions and incorporate a Pac-10 Championship game (see below for breakdown).
7. East Carolina and UCF will join the Big East.
8. The MWC, WAC, and Conference USA will do some realigning and create 2 conferences from the 3, renaming 1 of the conferences the Mountain West Athletic Conference (MWAC).
Your New Conferences will look like this:
Big Ten
East
Penn St
Michigan
Michigan St
Purdue
Northwestern
Illinois
West
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Iowa
Missouri
Minnesota
Indiana
Pac-10
South
USC
California
Stanford
UCLA
Arizona
Arizona St.
North
Oregon
Oregon St.
Boise St.
BYU
Washington
Washington St.
Big 12
North
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Nebraska
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
South
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Colorado
There are lots of questions… but let’s just focus on the X’s and O’s of this subject, if you will.
The last major conference expansion/realignment occurred in 2004-05 when Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College seceded from the Big East to joint the ACC. Prior to that, you’d have to look all the way back to the early 90’s when the SEC grabbed Arkansas and South Carolina to boost its conference membership from 10 to 12. So, why expand?
Back in 1991, under the direction and vision of Roy Kramer, the SEC decided that it would put its stock in a grand idea known as a Conference Championship Game. Up until that point, conference titles were determined strictly by records during the regular season. The idea was initially scoffed upon, considered to be too ambitious and uninteresting. Well, 18 years later, the 2009 SEC Championship game earned $14.3 million dollars in profit in a 3-day span in Atlanta, GA. The Big 12, ACC, Mid-American Conference and Conference USA have followed suit and while their revenue doesn’t match that of the SEC, “Conference Championship Weekend” (early December) has become one of the biggest money making weekends during the college football season.
So it’s no wonder that other conferences (e.g. Pac-10, Big Ten, MWC) want to add teams in order to set up a conference title matchup in December. The Big Ten, in particular is hungry to make this a reality for 1 main reason. The Big Ten regular season football schedule typically ends the week before Thanksgiving. That essentially renders the conference an afterthought as the other major conferences host their Championship games in early December.
A major point of contention that I have with the idea of a “superconference” that would house 14 or maybe even 16 football teams is simple. The University presidents and athletic directors have made it quite clear that the football season is not going to go above 12 regular season games. And with that, you only have 8 conference games. If, for example, the Big Ten grew to 16 teams, that would mean that teams would only play half the conference in any given year. Can you imagine the possibility that the Big Ten Champion might be undefeated yet they lucked out and didn’t have to play Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State or Wisconsin in their season? How could any college football fan want a situation like that to become a possibility? 12 teams is without a doubt the highest number of teams that should even be considered.
The fantasy talk of “Super-conferences” is fun and spirited, but I am going to err on the side of practicality in this debate. So many journalists and so-called analysts are predicting this major shift and realignment, but amidst the fantasy-laden nature of these ridiculous predictions, lays the truth. And the truth is, as I alluded to earlier, the last time more than 3 teams shifted to an already established major conference was 1953. Translation - it’s simply not going to happen. There will be some minor tweaking, but nothing that will be near the monumental avalanche of change that some are predicting.
Here are the changes that I see occurring. These changes will both add to the spice of College Football by allowing the Pac-10 and Big Ten to become stronger and have a Conference Championship Game, while still keeping in tact the basic structure that is in place today. And oh by the way… Notre Dame isn’t changing anything in my prediction.
1. Missouri will move to the Big Ten.
2. The Big Ten will create 2 divisions and have a conference championship game (see below for breakdown).
3. The Big 12 will compensate by adding TCU.
4. The Big 12 will then realign the conference divisions by adding Oklahoma to the Big 12 North which will create more competition in the north, while also setting up the potential for an Oklahoma vs. Texas Big 12 Championship game every season.
5. Boise State and BYU will join the Pac-10.
a. There is 1 caveat to this one happening. If somehow the Pac-10 doesn’t offer Boise an invitation and/or the MWC can convince Boise that by joining the MWC it will become a BCS conference. If that happens, then I predict the Pac-10 might try to add Fresno St and/or Hawaii.
6. The Pac-10 will create 2 divisions and incorporate a Pac-10 Championship game (see below for breakdown).
7. East Carolina and UCF will join the Big East.
8. The MWC, WAC, and Conference USA will do some realigning and create 2 conferences from the 3, renaming 1 of the conferences the Mountain West Athletic Conference (MWAC).
Your New Conferences will look like this:
Big Ten
East
Penn St
Michigan
Michigan St
Purdue
Northwestern
Illinois
West
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Iowa
Missouri
Minnesota
Indiana
Pac-10
South
USC
California
Stanford
UCLA
Arizona
Arizona St.
North
Oregon
Oregon St.
Boise St.
BYU
Washington
Washington St.
Big 12
North
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Nebraska
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.
South
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Colorado
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
#20 Nebraska Cornhuskers
Former LSU Defensive coordinator Bo Pellini has quickly brought the Cornhusker program back to the brink of superiority. The post-Osborne Era had a tough effect on the program that once won 3 National titles in 4 years (1994, 1995, 1997). Replacing a legend is never easy as people like Frank Solich and Bill Callahan found out. But now after a somewhat surprising 2009 campaign which saw the Huskers come within 1 second of a Big 12 Championship and BCS Bowl berth, the program is primed to once again cement itself on the short-list of National Powers.
Some publications (Phil Steele, ESPN.com) have Nebraska ranked in the Top 5 or 10 of their pre-season polls. I’m not as convinced as these pundits and there is 1 simple reason. How often does a school lose a Heisman finalist to the NFL, then get better??? Regardless of Ndamakong Suh being a defensive player, the fact is that his signature is ALL over the Cornhuskers 2009 success. The same dominance on defense will be tough to come by.
The QB position is probably the one that is most in flux on the Huskers roster. Returning Senior Zac Lee had a decent 2009 season and though he lacked flashiness, he showed growth throughout. Unfortunately for him and the team, Lee missed the entire spring with an injury. During that time, backup Sophomore Cody Green was excellent, which has some people in Lincoln questioning if Lee should be handed the job back when he returns from injury this summer.
Easing the burden placed on whoever the Cornhuskers QB is, will be RBs Roy Helu Jr. and Rex Burkhead. The 2 combined for 1,500 yards and 12 TDs last season, but most expect those numbers to rise significantly as they emerge as one of the best 2-man backfields in America. WR Niles Paul provides a viable option down the field as the top returning ballcatcher. The offense should improve on last years numbers… and if they can figure out a way to solidify the QB position, then the Huskers should become one of the best offenses in the Big 12.
Everyone wants to know… who will replace Ndamokong Suh? Well that tall (and wide) order goes to DT Jared Crick, but to think that anyone can replicate what Suh did would be irresponsible. Crick was overshadowed last season and is very strong and athletic, but he wont have Suh demanding a double team block constantly, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to being “the man”.
The defensive secondary has some solid experience. Pellini was known for his strong secondary players while at LSU and CB Prince Amukamara is much in the mold of an SEC-caliber defensive back. With some strong passing games in the Big 12, consistency at that position will be key to the Cornhuskers success.
Nebraska is a team that almost everyone is looking at to be in a BCS Bowl game. With the shakiness of the QB and loss of Suh, I am one of the few skeptics. Regardless of what anybody thinks though… for a tradition rich program, stock piled with talent… anything less than a January Bowl will be a failure. Their Week 3 tilt with Jake Locker and company will give us a taste of their talent, while their Week 7 battle against the Texas Longhorns will let us know if they are a title contender. I predict a 9-3 season for the Children of the Corn.
Key Returning Players:
QB Cody Green
RB Roy Helu Jr
WR Niles Paul
DT Jared Crick
DE Pierre Allen
CB Prince Amukamara
Key Games:
Sept 18 - @ Washington
Oct 17 - Texas
Oct 23 - @ Oklahoma State
Oct 30 - Missouri
Nov 26 - Colorado
Some publications (Phil Steele, ESPN.com) have Nebraska ranked in the Top 5 or 10 of their pre-season polls. I’m not as convinced as these pundits and there is 1 simple reason. How often does a school lose a Heisman finalist to the NFL, then get better??? Regardless of Ndamakong Suh being a defensive player, the fact is that his signature is ALL over the Cornhuskers 2009 success. The same dominance on defense will be tough to come by.
The QB position is probably the one that is most in flux on the Huskers roster. Returning Senior Zac Lee had a decent 2009 season and though he lacked flashiness, he showed growth throughout. Unfortunately for him and the team, Lee missed the entire spring with an injury. During that time, backup Sophomore Cody Green was excellent, which has some people in Lincoln questioning if Lee should be handed the job back when he returns from injury this summer.
Easing the burden placed on whoever the Cornhuskers QB is, will be RBs Roy Helu Jr. and Rex Burkhead. The 2 combined for 1,500 yards and 12 TDs last season, but most expect those numbers to rise significantly as they emerge as one of the best 2-man backfields in America. WR Niles Paul provides a viable option down the field as the top returning ballcatcher. The offense should improve on last years numbers… and if they can figure out a way to solidify the QB position, then the Huskers should become one of the best offenses in the Big 12.
Everyone wants to know… who will replace Ndamokong Suh? Well that tall (and wide) order goes to DT Jared Crick, but to think that anyone can replicate what Suh did would be irresponsible. Crick was overshadowed last season and is very strong and athletic, but he wont have Suh demanding a double team block constantly, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to being “the man”.
The defensive secondary has some solid experience. Pellini was known for his strong secondary players while at LSU and CB Prince Amukamara is much in the mold of an SEC-caliber defensive back. With some strong passing games in the Big 12, consistency at that position will be key to the Cornhuskers success.
Nebraska is a team that almost everyone is looking at to be in a BCS Bowl game. With the shakiness of the QB and loss of Suh, I am one of the few skeptics. Regardless of what anybody thinks though… for a tradition rich program, stock piled with talent… anything less than a January Bowl will be a failure. Their Week 3 tilt with Jake Locker and company will give us a taste of their talent, while their Week 7 battle against the Texas Longhorns will let us know if they are a title contender. I predict a 9-3 season for the Children of the Corn.
Key Returning Players:
QB Cody Green
RB Roy Helu Jr
WR Niles Paul
DT Jared Crick
DE Pierre Allen
CB Prince Amukamara
Key Games:
Sept 18 - @ Washington
Oct 17 - Texas
Oct 23 - @ Oklahoma State
Oct 30 - Missouri
Nov 26 - Colorado
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