Conference Expansion?

Will they or wont they? So much talk in this offseason has centered on the Big Question of Conference Expansion. The talk of “Super Conferences” and “Playoffs” and “Money” and “TV Deals” has been floating around the world of College Football for the past 4 months. Is this a good idea? Will it create more money? Will it shift the power of recruiting?

There are lots of questions… but let’s just focus on the X’s and O’s of this subject, if you will.

The last major conference expansion/realignment occurred in 2004-05 when Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College seceded from the Big East to joint the ACC. Prior to that, you’d have to look all the way back to the early 90’s when the SEC grabbed Arkansas and South Carolina to boost its conference membership from 10 to 12. So, why expand?

Back in 1991, under the direction and vision of Roy Kramer, the SEC decided that it would put its stock in a grand idea known as a Conference Championship Game. Up until that point, conference titles were determined strictly by records during the regular season. The idea was initially scoffed upon, considered to be too ambitious and uninteresting. Well, 18 years later, the 2009 SEC Championship game earned $14.3 million dollars in profit in a 3-day span in Atlanta, GA. The Big 12, ACC, Mid-American Conference and Conference USA have followed suit and while their revenue doesn’t match that of the SEC, “Conference Championship Weekend” (early December) has become one of the biggest money making weekends during the college football season.

So it’s no wonder that other conferences (e.g. Pac-10, Big Ten, MWC) want to add teams in order to set up a conference title matchup in December. The Big Ten, in particular is hungry to make this a reality for 1 main reason. The Big Ten regular season football schedule typically ends the week before Thanksgiving. That essentially renders the conference an afterthought as the other major conferences host their Championship games in early December.

A major point of contention that I have with the idea of a “superconference” that would house 14 or maybe even 16 football teams is simple. The University presidents and athletic directors have made it quite clear that the football season is not going to go above 12 regular season games. And with that, you only have 8 conference games. If, for example, the Big Ten grew to 16 teams, that would mean that teams would only play half the conference in any given year. Can you imagine the possibility that the Big Ten Champion might be undefeated yet they lucked out and didn’t have to play Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, Penn State or Wisconsin in their season? How could any college football fan want a situation like that to become a possibility? 12 teams is without a doubt the highest number of teams that should even be considered.

The fantasy talk of “Super-conferences” is fun and spirited, but I am going to err on the side of practicality in this debate. So many journalists and so-called analysts are predicting this major shift and realignment, but amidst the fantasy-laden nature of these ridiculous predictions, lays the truth. And the truth is, as I alluded to earlier, the last time more than 3 teams shifted to an already established major conference was 1953. Translation - it’s simply not going to happen. There will be some minor tweaking, but nothing that will be near the monumental avalanche of change that some are predicting.

Here are the changes that I see occurring. These changes will both add to the spice of College Football by allowing the Pac-10 and Big Ten to become stronger and have a Conference Championship Game, while still keeping in tact the basic structure that is in place today. And oh by the way… Notre Dame isn’t changing anything in my prediction.

1. Missouri will move to the Big Ten.
2. The Big Ten will create 2 divisions and have a conference championship game (see below for breakdown).
3. The Big 12 will compensate by adding TCU.
4. The Big 12 will then realign the conference divisions by adding Oklahoma to the Big 12 North which will create more competition in the north, while also setting up the potential for an Oklahoma vs. Texas Big 12 Championship game every season.
5. Boise State and BYU will join the Pac-10.
a. There is 1 caveat to this one happening. If somehow the Pac-10 doesn’t offer Boise an invitation and/or the MWC can convince Boise that by joining the MWC it will become a BCS conference. If that happens, then I predict the Pac-10 might try to add Fresno St and/or Hawaii.
6. The Pac-10 will create 2 divisions and incorporate a Pac-10 Championship game (see below for breakdown).
7. East Carolina and UCF will join the Big East.
8. The MWC, WAC, and Conference USA will do some realigning and create 2 conferences from the 3, renaming 1 of the conferences the Mountain West Athletic Conference (MWAC).


Your New Conferences will look like this:

Big Ten

East
Penn St
Michigan
Michigan St
Purdue
Northwestern
Illinois

West
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Iowa
Missouri
Minnesota
Indiana

Pac-10

South
USC
California
Stanford
UCLA
Arizona
Arizona St.

North
Oregon
Oregon St.
Boise St.
BYU
Washington
Washington St.

Big 12

North
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
Nebraska
Kansas
Kansas St.
Iowa St.

South
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Colorado